The recent surge in terror activities in Jammu and Kashmir’s Jammu region has marked a concerning escalation in violence since 2021. The attacks commenced on October 11, 2021, when security forces were tipped about a group of suspected militants in Chamrer village, Dera Ki Gali belt, in Poonch district. This resurgence in violence is seen as part of a broader strategy by Pakistan to destabilize the region. 

Decoding the recent terror attacks targetting military convoys in Jammu has suggested the involvement of Pakistan’s retired Special Operations Group (SOG) soldiers. The terrorists have been seen to be specially trained in ambush tactics, jungle warfare and using sophisticated weaponry. There were also FPV videos surfacing on the internet of Pak-sponsored terrorists attacking Indian soldiers suggesting that the attackers also use body cameras to record their ambushes. 

Why the terror surge in Jammu?

It’s clear that whatever normalcy is ever established in Jammu & Kashmir by India, Pakistan finds it hard to digest. What rattled Pakistan even more was the successful conduct of the G20 event in the valley in 2023 and a higher-than-expected voter turnout in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. With Assembly Elections scheduled in three phases in September and October, the terror handlers from across are trying their best to destabilize the region’s peace and politics.

In a recent interview with the media, J&K Lieutenant-Governor Manoj Sinha highlighted Pakistan’s frustration over these developments, asserting that the neighbouring country is attempting to deflect attention from its internal crises by instigating unrest in Jammu. The LG also emphasised that according to him the recent wave of terror attacks is characterized by the involvement of well-trained foreign terrorists equipped with night-vision devices and sophisticated weapons, indicating the support of the Pakistani Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). According to security agencies, some foreign terrorists have crossed the LOC and IB in a fresh bid of infiltration and are hiding in the natural caves of the pir panjal range.

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The ambushes by the shadow outfits of Jash-e-Mohammad like Kashmir Tigers and People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF) also seem to be encouraged by the transfer of a Brigadier level officer and three others after the December 21, 2023 ambush in Poonch. The incident had left 4 soldiers and three civilians dead. The three civilians were from a nearby village and were allegedly killed during interrogation by the Army which led to the controversy leading to the transfer of officers. 

Over 50 security personnel have lost their lives in terror attacks in the Jammu region since 2021. LG Sinha noted that the terrorists have exploited the withdrawal of Indian security forces from higher reaches after observing “zero militancy” for 15 years. This has necessitated a strategic redeployment of forces to these areas, with a renewed focus on counter-insurgency measures.

Following a decline in militancy post-2007, changes in deployment patterns created a void, leading to weaker intelligence in recent years. Moreover, the reduction in troop numbers in 2021, as forces were moved to the Line of Actual Control, expanded the operational area for each battalion in Jammu, resulting in longer intervals between patrols. Approximately 4,000 to 5,000 troops, mainly focused on counter-terrorism, were redeployed, leaving security gaps.

Security Reinforcements in Jammu & Kashmir

In efforts to counter this revival of terrorism in the region, the Indian Army has reportedly redeployed its 10 battalions and over 500 Special Forces operatives in the higher reaches of the south Pir Panjal range. The recent trend of attacks westwards of Jammu in the Kathua-Samba region is noteworthy as the specified region is close to the International Border. These areas, even though part of the Jammu region, come under the Army Western Command, which does not undertake counter-terror operations.

In July, a brigade-level strength of around 3,000 Army troops along with 400-500 special forces personnel were inducted into the Jammu area. New SOPs have been devised for operations and these forces are engaged in search and destroy missions targeting terrorists hiding in natural and man-made hideouts. Additional troops of the Central Armed Police Force (CAPFs) have also been deployed. To enhance operational capabilities, the forces have been equipped with new resources, including the induction of armoured and mine-protected vehicles.

Special focus is also laid on cutting down the Over Ground Worker (OGW) networks. Local over-ground workers and terrorist sympathizers have been identified and are under close scrutiny by security agencies. There has also been an increase in narco-terrorism cases, facilitated both by people and drones, generating adequate funds for distribution to locals and to fund terror activities. Several drones transporting drugs, explosives, weapons and money have been shot down and caught in the region (also in the Punjab border) by security forces in the last few years. It’s believed that the ever-active network of OGWs is a direct result of the increased inflow of funds.

Security Amid Upcoming Assembly Elections

With the upcoming Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, the security agencies are on high alert. Intelligence inputs have indicated a significant threat, particularly in high-risk areas such as Rajouri, Poonch, Kathua, and Doda. The Indian Army has increased its presence with strategic deployment to maintain peace and stability during the election period and thwart any potential threat. 

With the increased dependence on technology for surveillance, ground intelligence connection has reduced which was traditionally a vital source of operational intelligence. Efforts are now being made to reorient the operational philosophy to emphasize basic counter-insurgency operations, including human intelligence gathering and local community engagement.

As Jammu & Kashmir prepares for its first Assembly elections since the abrogation of Article 370, ensuring a secure environment remains the top priority for security agencies. A coordinated and adaptive approach will be crucial in countering the threats and safeguarding the region’s future from some unfriendly neighbours.